USA vs. Ireland: Preview and Prediction

Over 20,000 fans are expected to pack BBVA Compass Stadium in Houston and thousands more are expected to watch on television as the Eagles take on Ireland in their most anticipated match of the summer. This is the only time the U.S. will have the opportunity to play at Tier I nation this year and as such represents an opportunity for the U.S. to test themselves against a tough opponent. The conditions at game time are expected to be hot, around 85 degrees fahrenheit with around 60% humidity  making it feel like 89 degrees. Further, the design of BBVA Compass Stadium traps in the heat making it feel hotter. Regardless, both teams are expected to come out attacking as each has a point to prove to their respective fan bases.  Adding to the drama of the match is that the U.S. is fielding arguably their strongest team on record while Ireland comes in missing several players to Lions duty and injury. Put it all together and it should be an entertaining match.

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The Teams

United States: The U.S. brings arguably their strongest lineup possible. The return of Samu Manoa to the team for the first time in a few years will give the Eagles another bruising player in the back-row to pair alongside captain Todd Clever and Scott LaValla. That is easily the most decorated and experience back-row the U.S. has put together in years. In the backs both Taku Ngwenya and Chris Wyles return from overseas duty. Ngwenya changes the way opposing defenses react to the U.S. and he has become more of a weapon under head coach Mike Tolkin's more open offensive system. Wyles will provide the kicking and a great presence kicking from hand. He regularly starts for Saracens despite a number of English internationals.

Joining Wyles and Ngwenya in the deep three is 7's player Luke Hume. He's had some iffy moments since converting from rugby league but overall defenses haven't quite figured out how to defend him. Andrew Suniula gets the start at inside center, just as he has done for the last dozen or so internationals. Joining him at outside center is Seamus Kelly, who made his international debut two weeks ago against Canada. Kelly has been outstanding for Cal the last few years and led them to the CRC title last weekend.

The prop pairing of Eric Fry and Shawn Pittman has come along nicely over the last year. They will once again start together. Chris Biller has been deemed healthy enough to start at hooker. Brian Doyle and Lou Stanfill will once again start together in the locks. In the halfbacks, Mike Petri takes over from Robbie Shaw and Toby L'Estrange makes his fifth straight start at fly-half.

Even on the bench the U.S. is deep. John Quill would normally start at flanker but is relegated to the bench. Peter Dahl has shown well when given his opportunity. Shaw is certainly capable at backing up Petri while James Paterson and Adam Siddall provide some extremely dangerous weapons off the bench. The only weak spot on the team may be Zach Fenoglio, Phil Thiel and Nick Wallace as the reserve front row players. Fenoglio didn't have the greatest match against Canada and Wallace is still green. Thiel is still working his way back after taking some time off after the World Cup.

Forwards: Shawn Pittman, Chris Biller, Eric Fry, Brian Doyle, Lou Stanfill, Samu Manoa, Scott LaValla, Todd Clever

Backs: Mike Petri, Toby L'Estrange, Taku Ngwenya, Andrew Suniula, Seamus Kelly, Luke Hume, Chris Wyles

Bench: Zach Fenoglio, Nick Wallace, Phil Thiel, Peter Dahl, John Quill, Robbie Shaw, James Paterson, Adam Siddall

Ireland: The Irish are missing ten players to British and Irish Lions duty, including Brian O'Driscoll, Tommy Bowe, Rob Kearney, Paul O'Connell, and Jamie Heaslip. Rory Best was to captain Ireland while in the U.S. but he replaced Dylan Hartley on the Lions tour. Additionally, players like Stephen Ferris, Luke Fitzgerald, Luke Marshall, and Gordon D'Arcy are all injured and not on tour. In total, only eight players ont he entire squad have 10 caps or more. Andrew Trimble has the most with 49, followed by Tom Court and Mike Ross with 30 and 29 respectively. Seven players have no caps, and 14 have six caps or less.

Still, even without many caps on their team most of the Irish players have more professional experience than their American counterparts. Fly-halfs Paddy Jackson and Ian Madigan only have three and two caps but they had Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O'Gara ahead of them for many years. Other players are also up and coming. Simon Zebo is an electric player that has gotten a lot of attention recently. Richardt Strauss is a highly regarded hooker. Isaac Boss should bring calmness to the team at scrumhalf.

Arguably the strongest part of the Irish team lies in their front row of Ross, Strauss, and David Kilcoyne. They should give the U.S. front row all they can handle and more. Backing them up is Court, who as we noted has a lot of experience. From top to bottom this is a tough Ireland team that on paper is favored over the Eagles.

Forwards: David Kilcoyne, Richardt Strauss, Mike Ross, Mike McCarthy, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Chris Henry, Peter O'Mahony

Backs: Isaac Boss, Ian Madigan, Simon Zebo, Stuart Olding, Darren Cave, Fergus McFadden, Robbie Henshaw

Bench: Mike Sherry, Jamie Hagan, Tom Court, Dan Tuohy, Tommy O'Donnell, Paul Marshall, Paddy Jackson, Felix Jones

Match-ups to Watch

Mike Ross & David Kilcoyne vs. Shawn Pittman & Eric Fry: The prop position has been a worry for the U.S. over the last few years but Pittman and Fry have recently given stability to the position and have been improving. However, they will face their biggest test with Ross and Kilcoyne. Coming up even in the match-up will go a long way to helping the Eagles.

Ian Madigan vs. Toby L'Estrange: This is another match-up in which the U.S. play even it will be a victory. L'Estrange didn't have the best game against Canada and will have to do better on Saturday to match his counterpart.

Peter O'Mahony, Chris Henry, & Iain Henderson vs. Todd Clever, Scott LaValla, & Samu Manoa: The U.S. has the advantage in this match-up and will need to maximize that advantage on Saturday. The U.S. is more mobile than their Irish counterparts and is more physical. If they can impose themselves the U.S. should have a good match.

Luke Hume & Taku Ngwenya vs. Fergus McFadden & Simon Zebo: Typically you would think of the U.S. needing to contain Zebo, but it also works the other way. If McFadden and Zebo don't do their part defensively Hume and Ngwenya could tear them apart.

Keys to the Match

Play Controlled: With all the hype surrounding this match the U.S. can either come out over aggressive and hurt themselves or they can channel that energy into great tackles and crisp passes. Being over aggressive hurt them last year and too many penalties could allow Ireland to slow down and kill the game.

Find the Wings: The U.S. has offensively been successful this last year but finding the wings more quickly. Having Mike Petri and his quick ball should help but it will be up to L'Estrange to finish the movement. Getting Ireland stretched will help the big back-row wreak even more havoc.

Kicking: In the heat kicking for points could be big as both teams tire and make mistakes. Ireland have their kicking game down but it will be up to Chris Wyles to make it happen for the Eagles.

Defense: It's a general statement but it's true. At the World Cup the U.S. consistently frustrated Ireland and without their strongest team and not much of an offensive rhythm, getting under Ireland's skin will be crucial to the match. Expect the U.S. to come out flying.

Stay Focused: With the heat Ireland are going to try and do everything they can to break up the rhythm of the game. They are experienced professionals and have a number of tricks up their sleeve. If the U.S. players aren't careful they could be sucked in the kind of games Martin Castrogiovanni played with them last year. They will need to stay cool, clam, and focused.

Prediction

Anyone predicting an easy win for either team is dreaming. While the U.S. is bringing in their best team in a long time, not every player on the team is accustomed to playing with one another. Manoa can be a dangerous weapon but he'll need to fit into the U.S. system. Kelly is still raw and could be exposed. Ireland is bringing in plenty of talented players despite the international absences and the players playing will want to take the opportunity to prove that they belong. Both teams match up really well against one another. Overall, we think that the combinations of lineups, conditions, and home field advantage will play in the Eagles favor and they emerge with a very narrow win.