However, before we begin we should explain that because the match against the Maori is not a test match it is unlikely that many of the European-based players will be available for that match. That means no Chris Wyles, Samu Manoa, Blaine Scully, Scott LaValla, or Taku Ngwenya. It's possible that one or two will make it but it will be a fight with their clubs that may not be worth having, especially with World Cup qualifying next spring. It is also an additional expense for U.S.A. Rugby to fly them over and back. So rather than a slim squad of 25 or so players, look for a bigger squad and expect domestic Eagles to play against the Maori.
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Prop: Shawn Pittman and Titi Lamositele were excellent at the ARC. Pittman brought a lot of leadership while Lamositele continues to improve match after match. That combination will likely start against the Maori All Blacks and could start together one match in Europe. If that happens, it will open the door for Lamositele to sign with Saracens. Nick Wallace also had a good ARC. He should be selected as well. Eric Fry is the most prominent overseas prop. He will definitely be called in and could start against both Georgia and Russia. Tolkin could go with four props but on a 30-man squad it's unlikely. Mate Moeakiola has been toiling away in Europe and was set to be called in over the summer but came up injured. There are a few other options out there, including Chris Sullivan, but if we had to predict we'd go with Moeakiola.
Hooker: Alex Goff if reporting the Chris Biller may not be available for the November tour. If that is true it really only leaves Phil Thiel as the starting option. Cam Falcon didn't see much time at the ARC and needs one more year of high-level rugby before making the jump. Derek Asbun can step in during an emergency but the more likely option is Zach Fenoglio to play back-up.
Lock: Lou Stanfill had surgery and won't be available while Brian Doyle is also reportedly injured. That leaves only Graham Harriman as a capped "true lock." But he didn't have the greatest ARC and his time to make an impact on the squad may have run out. Tai Tuisamoa was very impressive at the ARC and barring something crazy should be selected. John Cullen is a bit more iffy. He was passionate at the ARC but didn't always make the smartest of plays. One player to keep on eye on is Nick Civetta. He's now playing in the Eccellenza with Lazio. That doesn't always guarantee selection but training everyday can't hurt. If we had to pick a surprise we'd go with Pierce Dargan, but it appears he is still a bit off from making his full debut. We think that Tuisamoa, Civetta, and Harriman make the cut. That said, don't rule out either Manoa. Todd Clever or LaValla sliding into the position.
Back-row: Manoa (if available), LaValla, and Clever are easily the first choice selects along the back-row. They played well against Ireland and should dominate both Georgia and Russia. Cam Dolan was the Selects MVP of the ARC and will certainly be called in. His strong play may allow Tolkin to move one of the three mentioned above to lock. Derek Asbun and Danny Barrett also looked good at the ARC. If we had to bet, we'd bet that they both make the team. At least two of Dolan, Asbun, and Barrett will start against the Maori. John Quill is recovering but likely won't be ready in time and Liam Murphy separated his shoulder at the ARC. Other than these players, the back-row seems relatively thin.
Scrumhalf: If there was a co-MVP of the ARC for the Selects it would have to Shaun Davies. His distribution to excellent as was his defense. As such, it might be time to break up the Mike Petri-Robbie Shaw partnership. Petri had a mixed summer and his teaching duties may stop him from playing in all three of the matches. If he is going to play in one expect it to be the Maori match. Shaw has been doing alright with Esher and will be called in. Having Petri play the domestic matches and Shaw the European matches makes sense. They need a back-up and Davies is the obvious choice.
Fly-half: Arguably the biggest surprise of the ARC was Toby L'Estrange starting all three matches at fly-half. With his sub-par summer it was thought that someone else (i.e. Adam Siddall) would get a look. That didn't happen and instead L'Estrange played pretty well. Well enough to justify another look at fly-half. The problem with L'Estrange starting all three matches is that the Eagles still don't have a back-up. Folau Niua looked good against Canada. However, with the Dubai 7's one week after the Russia match it there could be a time conflict. If Niua can't play, which we think is likely, Siddall will be the back-up.
Center: Here is where things get complicated. Scully and Wyles have both spent time at center this year. Wyles especially has played extensively at inside and outside center for Saracens. Neither will likely be available for the Maori match. If they are options at center for the Georgia and Russia matches it will create an opening out on the wing. Andrew Suniula is an option but if he wants to stay at Wasps he is going to need playing time. So far that might only come during the LV= Cup which is the same time as the November tour. Still, we think he gets a look, as does his brother Roland. Seamus Kelly played well in the summer and should almost certainly get another call in. Chris Chapman was the best center at the ARC but it still seems that Siddall is the preferred option. Expect a number of centers to be chosen, including one possible surprise, in order to deal with both the Maori and the European matches.
Wing: Luke Hume has reportedly broken his leg. If that report is accurate then he will miss the November series. Ngwenya is out for the Maori match but should be available for the matches in Europe. James Paterson is a name that always gets kicked around but being out of the Eagles set-up for so long hurts his chances. Tim Maupin had a fantastic ARC and is a lock to be chosen. Ed Mills didn't play the last two matches due to injury. He is can recover in time look for him to be chosen as well. Joe Cowley did well at wing but might be better suited to fullback. Scully and Wyles can of course play wing and it wouldn't be odd for one of them to start at wing against Georgia and Russia.
Fullback: Wyles, Scully, Cowley, or Siddall are all options. One long-shot option is Max de Achaval, who had a decent time at the ARC.
Overall, this could be a very tricky time for Tolkin as he tries to balance what might be two separate squads. A player like Siddall could see time at three different positions during the test series while a number of other players could also be temporarily shifted around. One of the biggest questions for Tolkin is whether to go young or not. With World Cup qualifying just around the corner he may not be able to take that risk, but for the overall health of his squad he may need to. The convincing win over Uruguay at the ARC could be enough to give Tolkin confidence in his squad, no matter who he puts out against Uruguay, that they can get the job done. If that is the case, look for a few surprise younger names on the team.
Prop: Pittman, Lamositele, Fry, Wallace, Moeakiola
Hooker: Thiel, Fenoglio
Lock: Tuisamoa, Harriman, Civetta
Back-row: Manoa, LaValla, Clever, Dolan, Asbun, Barrett
Scrumhalf: Petri, Shaw, Davies
Fly-half: L'Estrange, Siddall
Center: Wyles, A. Suniula, R. Suniula, Kelly
Wing: Ngwenya, Maupin, Mills
Fullback: Scully, Cowley
Scully, Ngwenya, and Wyles would be an impressive backline for the U.S. but the way things are going now, it seems like Wyles has to be put in at centre. Once Hume's leg heals, the U.S. should be pretty strong in the backs.
ReplyDeleteMy concern is more with the on field leadership. I doubt a change a captain will be made, but Clever is just not the man for the job. Let him just play and do his thing. I feel Lavalla has a much better disposition when dealing with the refs and needs to be put in as Eagles captain.
ReplyDeleteI would also suggest that the put Manoa at 8 and let him have that spot.